We’ve got two streaking light heavyweights about to square off at UFC 160. Recently, Jeremy Botter and I got first crack at the opening odds for what could be a slugfest this Saturday.

Here’s what our initial impressions were on the MMA Oddsbreaker show. Full statistical analysis of this same matchup is coming later this week.

Click here to watch the 3-minute video.

Fightnomics and the author bare no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise. The information presented here is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Never gamble if you can’t afford to lose.

Like Fightnomics on Facebook, or follow on Twitter @Fightnomics to hear when new research and blog posts are available. Also follow MMA Odds Breaker and Jeremy Botter on Twitter. 

Lightweight Fight: Evan Dunham vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

UFC on FX 8: Rockhold vs Belfort, May 18, 2013

Big Picture: 

#10 ranked Rafael dos Anjos looks to leverage a home field advantage in Brazil and a three-fight win streak to cement his position in the UFC top 10. But UFC veteran Evan Dunham is 7-3 in the UFC, continuing his own slow rise to contention while amassing Fight of the Night bonuses.

The current line gives the advantage to the Brazilian at -190, with Dunham as the underdog at +165. Given how close the matchup is, and how much quantified fight data exists on these two fighters, it’s worth looking into the performance stats to see how these two really matchup.

Summary Stats:

Tale of Tape Matchup:

At first blush, the matchup is very even. The two veterans have similar sizes and ages within the range of insignificance. The only notable difference is that Dunham is a Southpaw, a metric that on its own is worth a small favorable bump for the left hander. With each fighter we’re looking at around 2-hours of UFC fight-time, so let’s dive deeper into those stats.

Standup Game:

In the key indicators for standup striking, Dunham nearly scores a clean sweep. Dunham has very high accuracy, overall pace, and cage control, which are all areas where his opponent, dos Anjos, falls below average. Both fighters have good striking defense, and while dos Anjos historically is slightly better, Dunham’s Southpaw stance may have a slight balancing effect.

Dos Anjos comes in about average for knockdown power, while Dunham is a little below. Both fighters have similarly better than average knockdown resiliency (“chins”). The reduced likelihood of an early knockout due to the size of the fighters as well as their historical tendencies makes pace and accuracy even more important in determining who wins the rounds. These metrics clearly favor the underdog, Dunham.

Ground Game:

Dos Anjos has attempted more takedowns, while Dunham has had to defend more. But in terms of success, the two fighters have nearly identical offensive and defensive success rates. And in both cases, their defenses are a better than their offenses. Dos Anjos may be first and more active in attempting to go to ground, but Dunham should be able to keep it standing for enough time to do work from his feet.

Once on the mat both fighters have gotten the better of opponents by controlling a majority of ground position. They advance and achieve dominant positions with nearly identical frequency, although Dunham has actually attempted more submissions overall (mostly guillotine chokes).

Overall, dos Anjos has a slight advantage on the ground by being the more aggressive and seasoned grappler, but neither fighter has been submitted, unless you count an injury submission by dos Anjos against Clay Guida.

Fight Prediction: The stats reveal relatively evenly matched fighters, but with a number of critical performance metrics lining up in the underdog’s favor. In lighter weight classes the pace of activity is very important. Dunham has been putting up big striking numbers on his feet, and has done so with much better accuracy than his opponent. This means he should be winning the exchanges, even if the probabilities are lower for a knockout.

Lightweights can and do fight everywhere. But we see good reasons for this one to stay standing, and that gives Dunham an advantage to win rounds and a decision. Doing so means overcoming the Brazilian home-field advantage, which he can do by ensuring his striking is much cleaner than his opponent, and thus making it easier on the judges to score in his favor.

Reed’s Pick: Dunham by Decision (click for latest MMA odds)

Reed’s Recommended Play:  I like a small underdog play on Dunham, or include him in a round robin.

This article originally appeared at MMA Oddsbreaker, the premier site for betting related news and analysis of MMA.  Follow MMAOddsbreaker on Twitter for the latest and breaking MMA odds. This information is for entertainment and educational purposes only. We are not responsible for bets placed, financial or otherwise. If you can’t afford to lose it, don’t bet it.

Note: articles I publish on other websites may have a delay before showing up on this blog, so follow me Twitter @Fightnomics or  Facebook to hear when new research and blog posts are available.

Based on the dynamics of folding in fighters from a tombstoned promotion, essentially forcing them into the “major leagues,” it was expected that fans and the betting public might view them as tainted goods. And for good reason, too. The “Horn Effect” that causes us to be biased against individuals with a perceived negative contagion (e.g., coming from the “minor leagues” or second tier of competition in Strikeforce) should lead to deflated market prices set by the betting public. And when bias can be identified, it can be bet against profitably.

Now in Part 2 of this experiment, we’ll take a look at the updated totals. Between the UFC on FOX 7 and UFC 159 events, there’s been an additional eight Strikeforce versus UFC incumbent matchups to analyze.

The Updated Results to Date

Since the Dec. 20^th 2012 announcement of the end Strikeforce events, here’s how the crossover fighters have performed in their UFC debuts when facing incumbent UFC fighters.

Source: All betting lines are quoted from 5Dimes.eu closing odds.

Note: the announcement that the promotion was closing was made on Dec. 20^th, 2012, but Strikeforce held their final event on January 12^th, 2013. For the purposes of this analysis any Strikeforce fighter making a UFC debut after the date of announcement against a fighter with UFC experience was included. These are considered “forced crossovers,” as opposed to previously “cherry-picked” crossover talent. Strikeforce fighters making their debut against other Strikeforce fighters were not included.

We’ll now revisit the total list of fights to date to examine the tally of expected versus actual wins.

Total Fights:

• Crossover vs. Incumbent Record:  10-8
• Average Strikeforce Fighter Betting Line:  +140
• Average Implied Win Rate:  42%
• Actual Win Rate:  56%
• Total Expected Wins:  7.5
• Total Actual Wins:  10

Favored Fighters:

• Favorite Record:  4-0
• Favorite Expected Wins:  2.7
• Favorite Actual Wins:  4

Underdog Fighters:

• Underdog Record:  6-8
• Underdog Expected Wins:  4.9
• Underdog Actual Wins: 6

When accounting for the betting line*, we see that most (14 of 18) of the Strikeforce fighters entered as underdogs, making their 10-8 far more impressive than the slight win/loss edge the record may indicate. Based on these implied market predictions, Strikeforce fighters should have only won 7.5 fights, but instead won 10. That’s why it’s important to factor in the context of expectations set by the market rather than just examine the record.

The bottom line is that if you created a betting portfolio to simply put $100 on every Strikeforce fighter making his debut against a UFC incumbent, you would have turned a sizable profit during this period. Risking $1,800 would have given back $1,000 of that capital for the wins, plus another $1,578.83 in additional winnings for a total of $2,578.83. That’s a hefty return of 43% in just over three months.

The dropping return rate compared to Part 1 of this analysis (which was formerly 68%), suggests the effect might be disappearing, or perhaps there’s some regression to the mean as the sample size grows. If we only considered the eight most recent fights (the Part 2 additions), our return rate actually drops to 12% on those bets alone. That’s much lower than our original return, but it’s still a positive return.

Incidentally, a win for Gilbert Melendez in his close split decision fight with champion Benson Henderson would have boosted these results instantly back in line with the profit returns during Part 1 (back to 64% overall). That’s how close this portfolio was to truly studding out. But in MMA, anything can happen. As a +280 underdog Melendez certainly put in a valiant effort, but no one can argue with the end result in a fight that close.

The results suggest that “we” collectively are still undervaluing these Strikeforce crossover fighters. They also suggest the effect may be diminishing. These calculations are based on the final odds at fight time, not the opening odds. So the market really is setting the price for these lines based on their betting actions.

The Experiment Plays Out

Here are the remaining Strikeforce fighters who will make their UFC debut against a UFC incumbent fighter. Again, Strikeforce fighters debuting against other Strikeforce fighters like Tim Kennedy vs. Roger Gracie at UFC 162 are not included. Nor are Strikeforce fighters who face a promotional newcomer from elsewhere. I’ve also excluded the debut of Trevor Smith because his opponent, Ed Herman, last fought in Strikeforce himself. Once a Strikeforce fighter has made their debut, they are no longer a crossover.

The rest of this Strikeforce experiment will finally play out over the summer as merger completes, and we’ll tally the final score for each side then. The bettors out there can put their money where their minds are by shorting the UFC incumbents if they believe the effect is real, or by ignoring the Strikeforce matchups if they believe the effect has since been absorbed by the market. Either way it’s been an interesting analysis of how psychological bias may be at work in hidden ways in professional sports, and the markets that attempt to evaluate them.

Regardless of these betting lines, or the final matchup outcomes, it appears as though Strikeforce fighters have already earned some respect inside the Octagon, and the merger has been a success. The infusion of new talent has led to four different events being headlined by a debuting Strikeforce fighter (Rousey, Mousasi, Melendez and Rockhold), and many more that have highlighted new or recent Strikeforce crossovers in marquis fights. All in all, the Octagon is seeing more talent than ever before, and the fans will see the best fighters in the world compete in the same cage. The UFC has not forgotten an important rule of event promotion: never let your pipeline go dry.

* End Note: Analysis of betting lines excluded the effect of the “vigorish” or “vig,” which reflects the bookmakers margin. If these were estimated and included in the implied win rates for each fight, the expected wins values would have been slightly lower, which would mean the bias effect is even larger than what I’ve shown here. 

This article originally appeared at MMA Oddsbreaker, the premier site for betting related news and analysis of MMA.  Follow MMAOddsbreaker on Twitter for the latest and breaking MMA odds.

Despite Jones’ impressive streak in the light heavyweight division, Sonnen’s been around a lot longer, including WEC and UFC appearance dating back almost a decade to 2004. All in all, we’ve got over 17,000 data points to sift through to see if Chael Sonnen can convert on what is likely his last chance for UFC gold.

The Tale of Tape shows that Sonnen, who was a good sized Middleweight, is facing a giant of the Light Heavyweight division. Sonnen will be three inches shorter and on the wrong end of a 10-inch reach differential. Getting the closer range needed to land bombs or takedowns will be that much harder in this trip to the Octagon. Granted, Sonnen’s had almost a year to rebuild his body for the larger division, so perhaps he’s packing more power and explosiveness than he did at 185 pounds. We will see.

Jon Jones, as always, presents a Tale of the Tape conundrum for his opponents. He’s tall, and has the longest range in the UFC. And in this case Jones is also 11 years younger than his opponent. At 36, Sonnen is already into the danger zone for increased knockdown risk. Though Sonnen has not suffered many KO losses, each trip to the cage only increases the probability a landed strike will drop him. The only ray of hope on the Tale of the Tape is Sonnen’s southpaw stance. Jones’ only minutes of vulnerability came against Southpaw striker Lyoto Machida. That didn’t stop Jones from finishing Machida, and also let’s not assume Sonnen has similar striking prowess as Machida. But it may give Sonnen a small earl window to close the distance on Jones. Which brings us to the striking stats.

One again, we see a stat line that heavily favors the champ. In striking metrics, Jones is the more accurate and more powerful striker, who also has better defense. Neither is particularly accurate with their power striking, but Jones does excel landing his jab, which is a key clue that he knows how to use his reach. Of Jones’ four knockdowns, two came from a distance, and two more from the clinch. His elbows and knees can come from all angles, and may be more dangerous than traditional power strikes. So Jones is dangerous from all over, and the glimmer of hope from the Southpaw doesn’t appear to be a threat, or at least has not been in the past.

Before you ask, no, Sonnen did not get credit for a knockdown in his first fight with Anderson Silva. It was close, but by the FightMetric definition it didn’t count. And that leaves Sonnen with zero total knockdowns. So the one important metric that favors Sonnen here is pace. When standing, Sonnen has been aggressive and has outstruck opponents by 70% based on pure volume of strikes. But then also keep in mind that only one quarter of Sonnen’s strikes in the Octagon have occurred while standing up. That’s less than anyone else on the UFC 159 card by a long shot. His aggressive, low accuracy, high volume attack has instead been used to set up clinch work and takedowns, not to purely box with his opponents. But can he do that here?

Given the range disadvantage, Jones should be able to spend more time standing and trading with Sonnen, giving Jones more opportunities to test Sonnen’s chin from a distance. Sonnen will have a tougher chase than he’s used to trying to corner the larger and elusive Jones. But with a relentless enough pursuit (and relentless pursuit is something Sonnen excels at), he should eventually get to a clinch for a higher potential takedown attempt. So we’re left with one more outlet for Sonnen, and that’s getting this to the floor.

If Sonnen manages to get a trip takedown from the clinch, the stat line on the mat starts to look better for him. In fact, if we weren’t matching him up against Jon Jones here, his stats would look pretty impressive. Sonnen has Division I wrestling credentials, and in competition he attempts takedowns frequently and with above average success. Once on the ground his clear focus is on striking, and he has outstruck opponents more than seven to one there by volume. He has been dominant in top position, passing guard 28 times in UFC/WEC competition, and reaching a dominant position of side control or better on 22 separate occasions. This position dominance and ground and pound style has won him plenty of decision, and even five different rounds against Anderson Silva. Unfortunately, those five rounds were not all in the same fight. It was also from here that he earned his only UFC submission, an arm triangle against Brian Stann. The conclusion is that Sonnen’s top game has been critical to his success.

And there’s the problem. Where Sonnen is good, Jones has been better. To date, no has taken Jon Jones down, not even high level wrestlers like Vladimir Matyushenko, Ryan Bader and Rashad Evans. On one scramble in the closing seconds of the Evans fight, Jones went to ground, but it wasn’t scored a takedown. Jones has fended off all 16 attempted takedowns by opponents, and converted 22 of 36 of his own. All told in his past fights, Jones has reigned down strikes from above at a staggering ratio of 11:1 compared to his opponents. So while Sonnen’s wrestling and ground and pound is great, Jon Jones’s is superior.

But unlike Sonnen, strikes are not Jones’ only weapon on the ground. Jones has more UFC submission finishes (five) than he has wins by (T)KO (three). Jones only needed eight submission attempts to finish five opponents; the two most recent of which, Machida and Belfort, were both BJJ black belts. And those five submission wins are just as many as Sonnen’s UFC and WEC losses by submission. Sonnen’s submission defense rate may look high at 76%, but that’s been against 21 different submission attempts by opponents, Sonnen was still finished five times. The submission game, then, appears to be a glaring mismatch.

The Final Word:

The recent betting line favors the champion at -850 (or better), with an implied win probability of 89%. That puts this fight into the potential layup zone for Bones. But as always, no MMA fight is a foregone conclusion, and Sonnen isn’t going to go down easy. He’s brought it in every big fight, even when he appeared to be outgunned. And regardless of outcome, Sonnen has surprised naysayers before, and looked impressive even in defeat. But given that Sonnen’s winning gameplan of the past is unlikely to be as successful against a giant grappler like Bones, perhaps that long betting line is justified.

So what do you think? Any particular stats you feel suggest that Chael can “steal” another belt? Or that hint at where Jones will exploit weakness? Next month we’ll examine a heavyweight rematch with a title on the line when Cain Velasquez meets Antonio Silva at UFC 160.

Like Fightnomics on Facebook, or follow on Twitter @Fightnomics to hear when new research and blog posts are available.  Raw data for the analysis was provided by, and in partnership with FightMetric, with all analysis performed by Mr. Kuhn.  Fightnomics, FightMetric, and Sherdog assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise. 

UFC 159
Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Saturday, April 27, 2013

Fight Breakdown: Pay per view cards are often good for guaranteeing some heavyweights will enter the Octagon. And UFC 159 is featuring to very big guys in a matchup that should end early. Here’s how they stack up, and what my betting play is.

Nelson (18-7) is a winner of the Ultimate Fighter that we all seem to forget about. He was an IFL veteran before getting onto the heavyweight season of TUF, and then rattled off wins against a long list of UFC heavyweight stalwarts. His stifling grappling and ground and pound got him through several TUF opponents, including the notorious Kimbo Slice. But it’s been his hands (and his chin) that have defined his career since. Though he shows mixed success in the Octagon, Nelson has really only lost to champion/contender-caliber opponents (Dos Santos, Mir, Werdum) in his UFC career, and has logged impressive KO victories over a number of still-active division peers (Schaub, Struve, Cro Cop, Herman and Mitrione). His willingness to stand and trade with anyone and everyone has given us plenty of fight-time to analyze his statistical profile, and the results clearly align with how his fights play out. While he maintains and average overall pace of activity, he is primarily a counter striker, and an accurate one at that. Among heavyweights, he’s actually one of the more accurate power strikers, but his striking defense is among the worst in the division. That’s where his most differentiating characteristic comes in: his beard. Both literally and figuratively, Roy Nelson has one of the strongest beards in MMA. In a division defined by knockout power, Nelson eats tons of strikes and just doesn’t go down. His losses may become lopsided, but at heavyweight, a slugger is still in it to the last bell. And he does all this at the age of 36, above the threshold for increased knockdown risk. Nelson is a unique man in a sport of extremes.

Kongo (18-7-2) has entered the Octagon an amazing 17 times as a UFC heavyweight, a feat surpassed only by former champion Frank Mir. Kongo seems to be holding out for a UFC appearance in Paris, and is battling Father Time as well as the continual evolution of MMA, and the new blood pouring into the UFC. His performance metrics should a superior striker who controls range, uses high volume, but still maintains good striking accuracy. His ground game is limited, reflecting his preference to stand and his background in kickboxing. Zeroing in on the key stat for heavyweights, Kongo shows up on the opposite end of the “chin strength” spectrum. While he as delivered impressive knockouts of his own, he’s been dropped more (5) times than standing knockdowns he’s scored on offense (4). It’s a surprising sta given his long career and number of TKO wins. Corrected per strike, Kongo has a tendency to get knocked down more than any active UFC heavyweight.

Fight Prediction: This fight should stay standing, and we’ll see two heavy hitters overcome an awkward feeling out process while the two test the large reach differential. This may come down to chin versus chin, while Kongo lands more frequent strikes from a distance, and Nelson waits to get inside to counter. Once shots land however, it should be Nelson’s that have a more devastating effect.t If Kongo survives the first round, he’ll have some opportunity to use range and volume to outpoint Nelson, unless Nelson can gain top position on the mat to win rounds. Nelson’s advantages outweigh is lack of defense and cardio risk.

Reed’s Pick: Nelson by (T)KO

Reed’s Recommended Play: Nelson winning this inside that distance (-137) offers much better value than his overall straight line (-235). If this goes the distance, which is unlikely, Kongo actually has a better chance to pull off the decision. But he’ll have to survive 3-rounds of haymakers aimed at a very suspect chin that turns 38 years old in just two weeks. The most likely scenario is Nelson by stoppage due to strikes. Throw that in a parlay with Jon Jones inside the distance and you can win plus money.

This article originally appeared at MMA Oddsbreaker, the premier site for betting related news and analysis of MMA.  Follow MMAOddsbreaker on Twitter for the latest and breaking MMA odds. This information is for entertainment and educational purposes only. We are not responsible for bets placed, financial or otherwise. If you can’t afford to lose it, don’t bet it.

Note: articles I publish on other websites may have a delay before showing up on this blog, so follow me Twitter @Fightnomics or  Facebook to hear when new research and blog posts are available.

Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey

Fight Breakdown: Regardless of how excited (or not) Jon Jones may be about this, the UFC light heavyweight title is going on the line at UFC 159. Current champion Jon Jones will defend his title against former middleweight title contender Chael Sonnen after a refreshingly awesome 17^th season of the Ultimate Fighter. Jones is currently a heavy -850 favorite (bet $850 to win $100) at 5Dimes Sportsbook, while Sonnen is a +550 underdog (bet $100 to win $550).

Jones (17-1) is already 11-1* in the UFC, and is making his fifth title defense since his (T)KO finish of Shogun Rua in 2011. Jones’ lack of appreciation of his opponents’ worthiness in this matchup may be deserved, as Sonnen will be the first challenger who has not previously held a UFC title. During his reign thus far, the 25-year old champ has finished five opponents in title bouts, with only one decision (a dominant one) against Rashad Evans. It’s easy to see on paper why Jones has been so successful. Boasting the longest reach in the UFC, “Bones” Jones has been very effective in using his unique physical attributes. He has a very accurate jab, excellent striking defense, and outworks his opponents by averaging 30% more strikes while standing and trading. These are all signs of a strong use of reach. But on the ground is where Jones has showed his best skills. With legitimate wrestling credentials, Jones has picked up one of the most dangerous submission arsenals in the game. Having scored five UFC submission victories, his two most recent even came against Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts.

*No explanation needed, we all know that wasn’t really a loss.

Sonnen (27-12-1) is strapping on an extra 20 pounds for his return to the light heavyweight division, and what is likely his last chance for UFC gold. At the age of 36, it’s also safe to assume that retirement from fighting may be lurking if this fight doesn’t go his way. But never underestimate the man who won four rounds against Anderson Silva, and got past challenges of Brian Stann and Michael Bisping to get earn a second title shot at the pound for pound best. There’s no shame in losing to Anderson Silva, even twice. Those middleweight fights exemplified the skills that Sonnen brings to the cage, namely, wrestling and tenacity. Though his standup striking skill metrics are below average, he throws a high volume attack that sets up an effective clinch game, and ultimately takedowns. Once the ground he focuses on striking, and outstrikes opponents 7:1. By this dominating method of control, Sonnen tends to win a lot of rounds and decisions. But if you live by the sword, be prepared to die by it. Sonnen’s clearest weakness is his submission defense, and he’s been submitted five times in the WEC and UFC. The shining example of this paradox was his first fight with Anderson Silva, where he won four straight rounds, only to fall into a leg triangle at the end of the fight. And we see here another five-round fight with an even more dangerous grappler in Jon Jones.

Fight Prediction: Based on Tale of the Tape advantages alone (mainly age and reach), Jones has at least a 70% chance of victory. But layer is Sonnen’s typical plan of attack to push forward and get top position on the ground to grind out rounds, and all the sudden Jones’ ranginess and submissions skills look like the perfect counter. Though it may take a round or two to develop, look for Jones to frustrate Sonnen by landing shots from the outside and stifling Sonnen’s attempts to clinch and drag this to the floor. In transitions Jones can lock in a submission from anywhere. And even if Sonnen becomes the first fighter to ever score a takedown on the champ, Jones can still use sweeps and attack from his back. The eventual finish is more likely to come from a tap rather than strikes, and that tap may also signify the last move Chael Sonnen ever makes inside the Octagon. Don’t worry though, we’ll see plenty of best talker in MMA in broadcasting down the road.

Reed’s Pick: Jones by submission

Reed’s Recommended Play: The line for Jones is extreme, bouncing around -900. That’s a huge price to pay for the champ. But Jones “inside the distance” is closer to -400, far more reasonable given the mismatch in submission skills that we should see.

This article originally appeared at MMA Oddsbreaker, the premier site for betting related news and analysis of MMA.  Follow MMAOddsbreaker on Twitter for the latest and breaking MMA odds. This information is for entertainment and educational purposes only. We are not responsible for bets placed, financial or otherwise. If you can’t afford to lose it, don’t bet it.

Note: articles I publish on other websites may have a delay before showing up on this blog, so follow me Twitter @Fightnomics or  Facebook to hear when new research and blog posts are available.

UFC on FOX 7: A Statistical Breakdown

I’m a fan of the commitment to top notch matchups for the FOX cards. Every one of the main card fights is an interesting matchup, and it’s stack with talented and exciting fighters. There’s even a title at stake on network Primetime. So while I push forward with statistical research and writing “Fightnomics” the book, I occasionally like to see what matchups stats might tell me about picking winners against the betting lines.

Keep in mind the overarching theme of the event: Strikeforce vs. UFC. The event is even being held in the same arena that hosted many early Strikeforce cards. There are 7 different Strikeforce fighters making their UFC debuts on Saturday against a UFC incumbent. And I’m no longer counting Jordan Mein as a Strikeforce fighter since he now has his first Octagon win. For more on what I’m calling “The Strikeforce Effect” see my analysis of these matchups to date. The early findings suggest we’re underestimating the Strikeforce fighters, but this idea is still a hypothesis requiring additional data points. And we’ll be getting a lot of new data this Saturday.

Here’s a few findings from the statistical analysis of each fighter pairing. The undercard contains more limited data sets for newer fighters, but in some cases the early findings suggest some upset potential. I’ll talk about the betting lines in many cases; just remember what my approach is there. Always use caution. The theme on the undercard seems to be a lot of close matchups that are tough to call. But once compared to the line I find myself leaning towards the underdog as the more profitable play. A few of these should be upsets, and the more the merrier. I’ll briefly discuss those.

The Main Card:

Jordan Mein (-350) vs Matt Brown (+290)

Full disclosure: I just got to meet Jordan and his dad in Montreal at UFC 158. It’s amazing he’s just 23 years old. He has maturity and the immediately recognizable poise of someone who is squared away and was raised right. Facing a gritty veteran with a dangerous ground game in Montreal, Jordan overcame an early armbar scare to become the first person to finish Dan Miller…in the first round no less. So I’m fully prepared to admit some positive bias for Mein here. Regardless of what happens, I hope he does well in the UFC, because he’s exactly the type of young athlete you want representing your organization.

But let’s look at the stats. Brown has been dangerous in his standup striking with high accuracy and as many knockdowns as anyone on the card. Impressive for a welterweight. But Mein still has technical advantages. While both are capable of destruction offensively, the critical stat here is striking defense. Brown’s defense is sloppy, so controlled striking can exploit this weakness, and that happens to be Mein’s strength. Brown has been more effective in the clinch and on the ground, but he is not the same grappling threat that Dan Miller was. It’s definitely possible for Brown clinch and grind out rounds, but for how long?

Bottom Line: My pick is Mein. But since the lines came out, he’s shot through the roof and I don’t recommend a play there. Brown is too dangerous to ever consider him out. I’m avoiding this one at this point, and just happy that I grabbed Mein much earlier.

Nate Diaz (-190) vs Josh Thomson (+165)

The closest line on the card is presenting the most conflict for the prognosticators. Diaz faltered in his last fight against Henderson, but was also hurt by an early punch in the eye. He comes into this fight with a Tale of the Tape sweep: younger, much longer, and a Southpaw. He also usually outworks opponents with accurate standup and always can fall back on his dangerous submissions. But Nate has lost to strong, well rounded guys who used wrestling to neutralize him (Rory MacDonald and Ben Henderson). And the Diaz brothers have shown poor ability to adjust once inside the cage.

If Thomson uses wrestling to control this at the start, he should be able to win rounds. Thomson is almost 35, and I don’t think he can just stand and trade with Diaz or he’ll eventually go down. So there’s a reason why the line is so close here. I think Diaz has the standup advantages to win this, but I’m just unconvinced he can keep it there if Thomson has a plan to use wrestling.

Bottom Line: I lean Diaz, but not enough to lay the price on him. More realistically, I think this fight goes the distance, and that’s safer bet for a parlay. Given the combination of the potential “Strikeforce Effect” and the tightness of the line, Thomson is a low risk upset pick.

Daniel Cormier (-440) vs Frank Mir (+350)

It’s the steepest line on the main card, so the Strikeforce Effect probably isn’t undervaluing Cormier here. We all know about Frank Mir’s ground game, but will he get to use it? Mir’s takedown success rate is average for heavyweights, about 40%. Daniel Cormier on the other hand, has Olympic-level wrestling experience bolstering his 100% takedown defense rate. If Mir gets this to the ground, it will be a big surprise.

But grappling is not Mir’s only weapon. Of any fighter on the card, Mir packs the most power with a 14% knockdown per landed head strike rate. Basically, Mir only needs to land about 7 power head strikes on average to put someone on the floor. Cormier packs a punch too, but he’s going to have to get past Mir’s 8-inch reach advantage and Southpaw stance to do it. However, this isn’t the first time Cormier has been outsized, and his striking statistics to date have been very good despite the range disadvantage. To date, Cormier’s striking accuracy, pace and control of the cage, and head striking defense are all well above average. Mir on the other hand, despite natural size and stance advantages comes in just a little below average across the board. Cormier also does not have the same on-the-job history of head trauma that might normally cause his age of 34 to be a problem. If anything, Mir’s chin will be the one more at risk here, despite almost identical ages.

So where does that leave us? Cormier has closed distance on bigger opponents for a while now, and his skill metrics are sharper than Mir’s. He should be able to connect more often with hard shots. Cormier normally operates at a higher pace than Mir as well. If sprawl and brawl doesn’t work, Cormier can mix in takedowns at will, keeping the ground game conservative to win more points on the cards, and/or just to prove the point that he can toss around larger men like rag dolls. Which he can.

Bottom Line: I pick Cormier, and I think he should get the finish by strikes. That’s a steep line to bet, so perhaps consider it for a parlay, or get better value with Cormier inside the distance.

Benson Henderson (-310) vs Gilbert Melendez (+255)

Champion versus champion. The stats show a very even matchup, with pace strongly favoring Melendez. Melendez also has good takedown defense, and enough experience not to get caught in something stupid. For striking stats, the two are very evenly matched, and neither excels in any way. The trouble is that Henderson is just so Smooth. He wins rounds decisively, and also wins rounds that he shouldn’t have. Intelligent fighters find a way to get that extra nudge on the scoring cards by doing just enough of the right things. In the end, I think Melendez should get a couple rounds, but the title should stay put. They just match up too closely on paper, so I have to look at the line.

Bottom Line: While I expect a very close fight ending in decision for Henderson, my betting pick is actually on Melendez because of the line. Judges do favor volume. And in a matchup even in so many ways, the volume game favors Melendez. You’re getting a good return, so a small play for the upset is reasonable.

Rest of the Card:

There’s some clear favorite that deserve their lines, and there’s some underdog potential on several fights. Again, keep in mind the difference between expecting an underdog to win, versus recognizing underdog value. It must all be considered against the line. Anyone can pick all favorites and be right 70% of the time.

Lines where I lean towards the underdog because of the value:

Clifford Starks (+125) over Yoel Romero (-155). Starks has athleticism and a striking advantage to exploit if he can keep it standing. His limited stats hint at accurate hands and power, which bode well against a 36-year old Romero who has been dropped recently.

Lorenz Larkin (+110) over Francis Carmont (-155). Larkin has good striking skills and clear power. In standup, he’ll be at a reach disadvantage, but his striking defense is excellent and he’s used to being undersized for his division. Both fighters have good takedown defense, but Carmont’s offense is poor. And overall, Larkin operates at a higher pace of action. Throw in a 5-year Youth Advantage for Larkin (which is the threshold that I consider the advantage to be real), and on paper I’d lean slightly towards Larkin. With a small plus money bonus, he makes a decent “underdog” pick. Even better if you grabbed him when the line was more extreme – see if it migrates that way again.

Hugo Viana (+260) over TJ Dillashaw (-350). Dillashaw has the typical well-rounded Team Alpha Male profile, with a solid wrestling base. But Viana’s striking metrics have been very good, as has his takedown defense. Dillashaw should win this fight. But Viana makes a fairer matchup than the line suggests. If that line keeps creeping further on Alpha Male momentum, Viana’s worth a small play for a big payoff.

Ramsey Nijem (+215) over Myles Jury (-275) is probably the biggest stretch here. Limited data that shows Nijem being better than expected, and Jury not being as good as his impressive record suggests. But if I was forced to pick against the line, it’s long enough to go underdog. More likely, I think this goes the distance, and that’s the play I’d make.

Lines where I lean towards the favorite, despite the price:

Anthony Njokuani (-170) over Bowling (+140), based on clear striking advantages and a 7+” reach advantage. Njokuani is used to fighting a higher pace, and also has excellent striking defense. He’s got great power for a lightweight and would be more susceptible here if were facing a great grappler with cardio.

Joseph Benavidez (-520) is a deserving favorite over Uyenoyama (+380). Looking down the stat line, there’s not a single critical area where Benavidez doesn’t have at least a little advantage. A steep price to pay, but a worthy parlay ingredient here.

Lines I’ll probably avoid:

Chad Mendes (-800) is a good counter striker facing a somewhat sloppy Darren Elkins (+500) who like to press the pace. That favors Mendes to counter, or use that momentum to put Elkins on his back. But at that line? Insane. Mendes should win, but that almost begs for a small flyer on the dog. Just avoid it. Benavidez is still the best Alpha Male bet on the card.

Tim Means (+120) is a justifiable underdog against Jorge Masvidal (-140). But Means held a crazy pace of action in his first appearances and managed good accuracy, good striking defense, and is 15 for 15 fending off takedowns. Masvidal has maintained great striking accuracy with a much larger sample size against more experience opponents, but has a lower-pace and a reliance on countering. Given less familiarity with these guys, I’d say the fact that Means has less of a name and higher output makes me lean underdog because it’s a lightweight fight. But again, this one is very low confidence.

For more analysis on this weekend’s UFC on FOX matchups from a betting perspective, check out the MMA Oddsbreaker podcast here. They’re the professionals, and usually know when lines have been pushed too far to have value. When it comes to betting, it’s not about picks, it’s about value. You must be willing to avoid favorites or go for underdogs when the prices misalign with your expectations.

Part 1.

In January of 2013, Strikeforce hosted its final event before folding the promotion and sending select fighters into the UFC. Top fighters had already been cherry-picked from the Strikeforce roster, perceived by some as Zuffa pillaging the spoils of war for the UFC’s benefit before the 2011 buyout reached its inevitable conclusion. And why not? There were definitely some stars lurking on the other side of the wall.

Another Beta Bites the Dust

This list of early marquis imports included prior UFC veterans and Strikeforce title-holders like Nick Diaz and Dan Henderson. These fighters trickled into the UFC through 2011 and 2012, followed by a large influx of heavyweight talent to boost the UFC’s first all-heavyweight card in May, 2012. In each case, there was no backflow; the pipeline between the promotions only went one way. Then came criticisms that the second strongest MMA promotion would not be able to survive the slow, deliberate bleeding of its best talent, and clear thinning of event card power. And eventually, that reality came to fruition after consecutive cancelled events at the end of 2012. Days later, Strikeforce announced there would only be one more card. On January 12^th 2013, Strikeforce officially closed the business. It was at that time that a number of solid fighters, a few of them holding now irrelevant belts but still highly ranked by most observers, finally had to face the reality of a new home that may not be very excited to see them.

But right off the bat, the first Strikeforce imports to make their UFC debuts turned heads. On the stacked Super Bowl weekend card of UFC 156, three different Strikeforce fighters would enter the UFC Octagon for the first time against incumbent fighters. The initial Strikeforce invasion established a beach-head with three straight victories, including two upsets. The fights led off the preliminary card aired on FX, and one by one Strikeforce fighters commanded respect. First it was the back to back upsets by Isaac Vallie-Flagg and Bobby Green, capped off by a 36-second exclamation point KO by Tyron Woodley.

The Results to Date

Since the Dec. 20^th 2012 announcement of the end Strikeforce events, here’s how the crossover fighters have performed in their UFC debuts when facing incumbent UFC fighters. For the purposes of this analysis any Strikeforce fighter making a UFC debut after the date of announcement against a fighter with UFC experience was included. These are considered “forced crossovers,” as opposed to previously “cherry-picked” crossover talent. Strikeforce fighters making their debut against other Strikeforce fighters were not included.

Source: All betting lines are quoted from 5Dimes.com closing odds.
Note: the announcement that the promotion was closing was made on Dec. 20^th, 2012, but Strikeforce held their final event on January 12^th, 2013.

The buzz of “Strikeforce’s Revenge” is worthy, at least to date. And the mixing of bloodlines hasn’t been gentle either, with 70% of these fights ending inside the distance, well above the average UFC finish rate. Even though the win streak that started the trend has since run cold, Strikeforce fighters have gotten the better of UFC fighters more often than not over the first 10 bouts in question. That’s a pretty cool trend on its own. But far more interesting is that Strikeforce fighters have outperformed market expectations by a long shot. Here’s how it shakes out when we account for the betting lines.

Total Fights:

• Crossover vs. Incumbent Record:  6-4
• Average Strikeforce Fighter Betting Line:  +155
• Average Implied Win Rate:  39%
• Actual Win Rate:  60%
• Total Expected Wins:  3.9
• Total Actual Wins:  6

Favored Fighters:

• Favorite Record:  2-0
• Favorite Expected Wins:  1.4
• Favorite Actual Wins:  2

Underdog Fighters:

• Underdog Record:  4-4
• Underdog Expected Wins:  2.5
• Underdog Actual Wins: 4

When accounting for the betting line*, we see that most of the Strikeforce fighters entered as underdogs, making their 6-4 run far more impressive than the slight win/loss edge the record may indicate. Based on these implied market predictions, Strikeforce fighters should have only won 3.9 fights, but instead won six. That’s why it’s important to factor in the context of expectations rather than just examine the record. We know that there’s a step up in talent in the UFC, it’s the Big Show after all. And some Strikeforce fighters were indeed making a leap into deeper waters with much more experienced opponents. And yet all that said, we see these guys succeeding against the odds.

In the two cases where Strikeforce fighters were actually the favorites, both Jordan Mein and Tyron Woodley took dominant first-round victories by (T)KO, justifying the market’s higher expectations for them. Underdogs, who were predicted to earn only 2.5 wins over their eight fights based on market prices, actually took home four victories. Furthermore, the only losses by any of these crossover fighters were all situations where the Strikeforce fighter was already an underdog.

The bottom line is that if you created a betting strategy to simply put $100 on every Strikeforce fighter making his debut against a UFC incumbent, you would have turned a hefty profit during this period. Risking $1000 would have given back $600 of that capital for the six wins, plus another $1,083.83 in winnings for a total of $1,683.83. That’s a hefty return of 68% in just over three months. Betting only the Strikeforce underdogs would have put less capital at risk, with an even higher return rate of 74%. Not bad in this economy, but let’s remind ourselves of the small sample size.

The early results suggest that “we” collectively are undervaluing these Strikeforce crossover fighters. They were the leftovers of a folded promotion, a dead brand. UFC divisions had to clear room for the newcomers, while roster cut announcements skyrocketed. But rather than looking forward to fresh matchups and the showcasing of new talent on a bigger stage, we’re left with a begrudging acceptance of filthy orphans. The reluctant accommodation of fighters out of their league, who we just have to tolerate long enough for them to wash out. Is that embellishment? Perhaps. But the power of the UFC brand is so strong in MMA that it would be easy to dismiss Strikeforce fighters as having come from an inferior league, with lower standards of talent. Yet we’ve seen them outperform so far. So the question here boils down to why we set our expectations so low to begin with. Why were fans and bettors sleeping on the Strikeforce talent? Well, there’s a good and simple reason for it, that’s why. Please indulge me for a quick science lesson.

Quick Science Lesson: The Case for Bias

In psychology, the term “Halo Effect” refers to positive bias awarded to individuals with some perceived attractive condition. In short, the “fair haired boy” or the attractive lady can do no wrong. We’ll perceive attractive people, or people with impressive titles or affiliations to be superior in ways that are unrelated to judging criteria. Some people get the Halo around their heads for whatever reason, and we judge them more favorably forever after. The opposite phenomenon is known as the “Devil Effect,” or the “Horn Effect” (which I prefer). Imagine the Horn Effect as someone who carries the tainted reputation of being related to a criminal, or having been part of a company or team during the time of a notorious scandal. Even if the individual had nothing to do with the scandal, they will be judged as guilty by association. The broader application of this bias to products is known as “contagion,” which can be positive (wearing a shirt signed by a celebrity) or negative (a chair that a killer once sat in).

A common example cited is when jurors treat attractive defendants more favorably, as if looking nice makes someone more trustworthy, intelligent or at least less likely to commit crime. In soccer, research has suggested a Halo Effect may be inflating salaries of players from Brazil in the British premiership due to the locally perceived superiority (and fear) of Brazilian players. In a brilliant experiment, lecturers introduced to a crowd with impressive (yet fictional) titles and credentials were judged as funnier (and even taller!) than the very same actors delivering the exact same speech to an audience that didn’t receive the same hype. The effect of this bias can be strong, and pervasive, and yet we’ll insist it can’t happen to us. But it does, all the time. To say that you are biased is not meant to be insulting; it simply means you’re human. We are full of psychological and cognitive biases that affect us in many small, but sometimes powerful ways, and that’s just the reality of the human condition.

Why is this relevant here and now? In sports, we often bias our perception of players based on their prior teams or college programs. Though we could readily examine a wide receiver’s 40 yard dash speed and completion rate, we may consider him to be inferior when coming from a Division III program compared to an identically speedy and dexterous athlete coming from a perennial Division I contender. And in MMA, having UFC credentials means being part of the elite of the fight game. A newcomer to the UFC is nearly always an import from another promotion, a process by which they are seen as “graduating from the minors” once they make it to the Octagon. But in the case of Strikeforce closing shop with so many fighters still on the roster, there was some forced adoption of fighter contracts under the assumption of a natural shakeout to unfold. This is why there are grounds for bias. Had the Strikeforce promotion continued, the assumption is that most of these crossover fighters would still be there, fighting at the junior varsity level. So when they come strolling into the Octagon against the varsity squad, it’s no surprise that most of the time they’ll be labeled as underdogs.

The last time rosters merged was when the WEC folded into the UFC at the end of 2010. The UFC created entirely new divisions to accommodate the new fighters, with some minor additions to the lightweight division. Larger divisions had already been harvested for the UFC in controlled amounts, which led to some notable additions like Carlos Condit, Chael Sonnen, and Brian Stann. But in the smallest weight classes at least, competition was still drawing from the same pool of talent. No featherweights or bantamweights coming from the WEC faced any stigma in their debuts in the larger UFC Octagon, because for the most part they were still competing against the exact same opponents. Eventually, the merger encouraged some UFC veterans to drop down to more competitive weight classes now that they could do so while remaining in the premier promotion. If there was a bias at work here in the early merger, it would only have been relevant to the lightweight division while WEC fighters made their UFC debuts against incumbents. It’s possible there was positive bias for UFC incumbents dropping down to face primarily WEC-legacy talent. Interestingly, the UFC lightweight division is currently ruled by exactly one of those WEC crossovers, Benson Henderson…at least, for now.

So here we are. Strikeforce fighters that performed admirably during their time in the “minor leagues” are now coming over to earn their spot on the UFC roster the hard way, mostly against UFC incumbent fighters. It’s in this context that we might expect the bias of the Horn Effect to take hold, to negatively impact our expectations for Strikeforce crossover fighters. And it is one plausible explanation for the temporary inaccuracy of otherwise historically sound betting lines. More generally, we might ask if fighters making their UFC debut – regardless of prior experience – see more bias either way from the betting public. Or whether cherry picked fighters received undue respect in the odds. Sounds like another data experiment, but I’ll have to get back to you on that one.

Reality Check

I subtitled this piece “Part 1,” because this natural experiment will continue on April 20^th on the UFC on FOX card. The event is being unofficially nicknamed the “Strikeforce vs. UFC card” due to the clever matchmaking theme of pitting notable Strikeforce crossover talent against incumbent UFC veterans in all four main card events. They’re even hosting the event in San Jose’s HP Pavilion…the old home of Strikeforce. Although according to the parameters of this analysis, Jordan Mein no longer qualifies as a crossover now that he has a UFC fight. But there are also three other Strikeforce fighters making their Octagon debuts on the preliminary card, and so plenty of chances to test this hypothesis.

In addition to the 10 fights to date, the next couple months will provide more data to see if the Strikeforce/Horn effect holds true. Will the Strikeforce crossovers outperform again, resulting in more wins than the market predicts? Or has the market caught on to the true quality and competitiveness of these fighters? The unofficial nickname for the FOX card could then be “Reality Check,” but that name was used already by UFC 59 in April of 2006. In that event, Tim Sylvia won the UFC heavyweight title from Andrei Arlovski, and Sean Sherk defeated Nick Diaz…how’s that for a reality check? More accurately, we should refer to this as the “Strikeforce Hypothesis” until we gather more data.

Here are the remaining Strikeforce fighters who will make their UFC debut against a UFC incumbent fighter. Again, Strikeforce fighters debuting against other Strikeforce fighters, like Tim Kennedy vs. Roger Gracie at UFC 162, are not included. And once a Strikeforce fighter has made their debut, they are no longer a crossover.

The rest of this Strikeforce experiment will finally play out over the summer as merger completes, and I will be interested to see the results. The bettors out there can put their money where their minds are by shorting the UFC incumbents if they believe the effect is real, or by ignoring the Strikeforce effect on matchups if they believe it has since been absorbed by the market.

Likely by the end of the July, we’ll have our answer either way. We’ll have no more title mergers, and no more hyped (Gilbert Melendez, Daniel Cormier) or under the radar (Derek Brunson, Bobby Green) crossovers to consider. It will be just one equal Octagon for all of Zuffa’s fighters for the first time in many years.

* End Note: Analysis of betting lines excluded the effect of the “vigorish” or “vig,” which reflects the bookmakers margin. If these were estimated and included in the implied win rates for each fight, the expected wins values would have been slightly lower, which would mean the bias effect is even larger than what I’ve shown here. 

This article originally appeared at MMA Oddsbreaker, the premier site for betting related news and analysis of MMA.  Follow MMAOddsbreaker on Twitter for the latest and breaking MMA odds.

So let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and then look at the winners and losers in each category. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included below.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Relative newcomer Shawn Jordan has been a highly accurate striker to date, though he has lacked knockdown power. So let’s focus on the trio of Pat Barry, Dave Herman and Mark Hunt, who each have four or more UFC appearances and have maintained power head striking accuracy of 38% or more. These are big guys who can also hit their target.

Energizer Bunny Award: Monstrous Southpaw Todd Duffee has almost quadrupled the striking output of his opponents with three fights to date in the Octagon, none of which have gone the distance. But with far greater Octagon experience, veterans Cheick Kongo and former champion Junior Dos Santos have managed to almost double the volume of opponents, all while maintain accuracy well above the division average.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Punch for punch, Shane Carwin has landed the most knockdowns in the fewest strikes. Despite low accuracy and pace, Carwin packed enough power to finish his first four UFC fights all by (T)KO. Like a mortar in high winds, Carwin doesn’t land on target very often. But when he does, he destroys what he hits.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: With just 12% power head striking accuracy, Christian Morecraft is the least accurate heavyweight striker. Though Shane Carwin is a close second, he has made the most of the shots he’s landed. Morecraft outworked opponents by more than 30%, but under-landed them in the long run.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Former kickboxer Alistair Overeem may have seemed invincible prior to his knockout loss to Antonio Silva, but he certainly didn’t press the action inside the MMA cage. Opponents outworked the Reem by throwing more than double his standing strike volume.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only three heavyweights shown here have failed to score a knockdown in UFC/Strikeforce competition to date. But Shawn Jordan has failed to do so in 56 minutes of Octagon time to date. But Jordan did manage to finish two opponents by strikes, showing he’s got power on the ground. Morecraft, however, failed to score a knockdown in four UFC appearances, losing three of those fights by KO himself. He recently announced his retirement from competition, which perhaps is a good thing.

Upcoming Heavyweight Matchups 

Though we’re just three months into 2013 and already fighters like Bigfoot Silva and Mark Hunt are putting in performances that will boost their striking assessment position the next time around.

The matchmakers have made sure to keep the UFC’s biggest sluggers booked for future shows. First, Matt Mitrione will take on Philip De Fries on the UFC on FuelTV card. De Fries has nice offensive stats but only from a very small sample size. One factor not discussed here is striking defense, and the stat for De Fries on defense is way below average.

The following week Travis Browne will make his comeback against Gabriel Gonzaga on the TUF Finale card. Browne will have a size advantage and can control range and pace. He’ll be more likely to land dangerous strikes on Gonzaga.

Then on FOX, Daniel Cormier will make his UFC debut against former champion Frank Mir. Cormier has outworked larger opponents and also has knockdown power, which we’ll likely see thanks to his wrestling base that can keep Mir’s BJJ at bay. The oddsmakers are already supporting this idea that Cormier has a big advantage in the matchup.

And closing out April, we’ve got Kongo vs. Nelson at UFC 159, pitting one of the fastest paced strikers against one of the least active ones. Nelson’s stout beard will buy him some time under the onslaught of Kongo’s attack, maybe long enough to land a big counter right hand. That one should be a slugfest.

In May we’ll get Junior Dos Santos vs. Mark Hunt, and see a title on the line with the Velasquez-Silva rematch. Bottom line: expect some fresh highlight reel knockouts from the UFC this spring.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

• Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Heavyweights is about 28%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.
• Standup Striking Pace: prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.
• Knockdown Rate: the objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155.

For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook. 

Two key concepts that I’ve analyzed in prior research are the ideas that UFC fighters have improved their pace of output continuously through the years, and that not all submissions are created equal.  Now it’s time to combine these two concepts and test a key hypothesis that’s been floating around the Octagon for a long time.  The question is: are submissions more difficult to secure later in fights, either due to sweat or fatigue, or both?  Common sense says “yes.”  But I’m going to run the numbers to find out for sure.

How UFC Submission Actually Go Down

What we know from how submissions go down, is that some of the most commonly attempted submissions are actually the least successful.  For example, in the average three-round UFC fight lasting 15 minutes, there will be at least one submission attempt, with an overall success rate of 20%.  In 2012 alone, the overall result was 70 submissions in 341 UFC fights, meaning about 21% of fights ended by submission in aggregate.

But when analyzed by submission type, the findings become more nuanced.  The guillotine choke is the most commonly attempted submission type, and yet is one of the least likely to be completed with a success rate of only 14%.  Only ankle locks and shoulder locks are less likely to succeed.  The rear naked choke, however, is hard to gain position for, but most likely to end a fight once there, with a best in class 41% success rate.

Keep in mind that FightMetric only counts a submission attempt for a technique that is fully applied.  That means just appearing to “go for the arm bar” doesn’t count as an attempt unless the arm actually gets extended.  So these success rates reflect the percentage of fully applied submission attempts that result in a tap or stoppage.

The Limits of Endurance

It’s true that the level of athleticism and conditioning has improved significantly during the rapid evolution of mixed martial arts. But let’s not all high-five the conditioning coaches just yet, because there are still limits to stamina and performance in the Octagon.

One key factor that changes with fatigue is a fighter’s ability to secure submissions.  With few only one exception, the success rate of submissions drops substantially in the third round.  Accounting for the fact that submission attempts occur at a reduced rate in later rounds, it’s still true that the success rate of these attempts is much lower than in earlier rounds.  It’s not a small effect; third round attempts have barely half the overall success rate of submission attempts in the first two rounds.  Grapplers be warned: don’t waste any time going for the submission, because the clock is ticking, and you’re only getting more tired.

Of the most common UFC submission types, almost all have been much harder to secure in the third round.  The most obvious reasons are fatigue and sweat, both of which make holding an opponent tightly much more difficult.  The lone exception is the Leg Triangle Choke, which notably, does not require arm muscles to sustain the lock.  Legs have greater strength and endurance than arms, so this pattern isn’t surprising.  In this case, fatigue may have a greater effect on a fighter’s ability to defend the triangle choke than on the fighter locking their legs in attack.  The lesson is: when you’re gassed, use your legs.  And whatever you do, don’t sacrifice position for a shoulder or leg lock.

Photo by Esther Lin, allelbows.com

Certainly, slipperiness of fighters later in fights definitely makes shoulder and leg locks more difficult.  Many of these submissions have success rates that drop to 0% in rounds three and beyond.  There are exceptions of course, often involving the best in the business (see Jon Jones’ Americana submission of Vitor Belfort).  But the trend is quite clear, and it likely has a lot to do with muscle fatigue.  Even pure position holds, like the RNC, are harder to keep locked for the necessary duration to elicit the tap, with early success rates of 44% dropping to 30% in the third round.  So fatigue is very likely a root cause.

Flexing muscles for long holds is harder with fatigue, and knowing this fact could change a fighter’s strategy mid-fight.  Even an exhausted fighter can still throw a haymaker that downs their opponent.  Knockdown rates don’t decline much in later rounds, proving that fighters remain dangerous in their striking, still able to summon their fast twitch muscles for sporadic bursts.

Grappling specialists are most likely to secure submissions in the first two rounds of fights, and only remain dangerous with their legs from guard or via back control in later rounds.  Armed with this information, fighters may change their offensive tactics in later rounds. For example, knowing that the chances of locking up a Guillotine choke is less than 10%, or that top game submissions will become nearly impossible, perhaps it’s better to stand and trade in the third, or improve position to back control if you’re down in the third.  Conversely, and fighter clearly ahead on the cards may be at less risk by going to the mat than by keeping the fight standing at the end of a fight.

How these findings are acted upon is up to fighters and coaches.  But at least now we’ve confirmed a key hypothesis about mixed martial arts once and for all.

Like Fightnomics on Facebook, or follow on Twitter @Fightnomics to hear when new research and blog posts are available.

Raw data for the analysis was provided by, and in partnership with FightMetric, and all analysis performed by Mr. Kuhn.  A portion of this article appeared in FIGHT! Magazine.