Betting Analysis: Evan Dunham vs Rafael dos Anjos
Lightweight Fight: Evan Dunham vs. Rafael Dos Anjos UFC on FX 8: Rockhold vs Belfort, May 18, 2013 Big Picture: #10 ranked Rafael dos Anjos looks to leverage a home field advantage in Brazil and a three-fight win streak to cement his position in the UFC top 10. But UFC veteran Evan Dunham is 7-3 in the UFC, continuing his own slow rise to contention while amassing Fight of the Night bonuses. The current line gives the advantage to the Brazilian at -190, with Dunham as the underdog at +165. Given how close the matchup is, and how much quantified fight data exists on these two...
read moreUFC 159: Jon Jones vs.Chael Sonnen, Statistical Matchup Analysis
Even a great season of the Ultimate Fighter isn’t really over until the coaches get locked in a cage together. And no matter what Jon Jones thinks of Chael Sonnen’s right to a title shot, Dana put it up for grabs anyway. So let’s look at the numbers and see how this fight could play out. Despite Jones’ impressive streak in the light heavyweight division, Sonnen’s been around a lot longer, including WEC and UFC appearance dating back almost a decade to 2004. All in all, we’ve got over 17,000 data points to sift through to see if Chael Sonnen can convert on what is likely his last...
read moreHeavyweight Fight: Roy Nelson vs. Cheick Kongo Betting Analysis
UFC 159 Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey Saturday, April 27, 2013 Fight Breakdown: Pay per view cards are often good for guaranteeing some heavyweights will enter the Octagon. And UFC 159 is featuring to very big guys in a matchup that should end early. Here’s how they stack up, and what my betting play is. Nelson (18-7) is a winner of the Ultimate Fighter that we all seem to forget about. He was an IFL veteran before getting onto the heavyweight season of TUF, and then rattled off wins against a long list of UFC heavyweight stalwarts. His stifling grappling...
read moreLight Heavyweight Title Fight: Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen Betting Analysis
UFC 159, Saturday, April 27, 2013 Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey Fight Breakdown: Regardless of how excited (or not) Jon Jones may be about this, the UFC light heavyweight title is going on the line at UFC 159. Current champion Jon Jones will defend his title against former middleweight title contender Chael Sonnen after a refreshingly awesome 17th season of the Ultimate Fighter. Jones is currently a heavy -850 favorite (bet $850 to win $100) at 5Dimes Sportsbook, while Sonnen is a +550 underdog (bet $100 to win $550). Jones (17-1) is already 11-1* in the UFC, and is making...
read moreUFC on FOX 7: A Statistical Breakdown
Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics UFC on FOX 7: A Statistical Breakdown I’m a fan of the commitment to top notch matchups for the FOX cards. Every one of the main card fights is an interesting matchup, and it’s stack with talented and exciting fighters. There’s even a title at stake on network Primetime. So while I push forward with statistical research and writing “Fightnomics” the book, I occasionally like to see what matchups stats might tell me about picking winners against the betting lines. Keep in mind the overarching theme of the event: Strikeforce vs. UFC. The event is even...
read moreFirst Preview of GSP vs Hendricks with MMA Oddsbreaker
Though the matchup between champion Georges St-Pierre and challenger Johny Hendricks doesn’t have a date yet, the boys at MMA Oddsbreaker already have a bead on the betting line. I recently joined Jeremy Botter from the Bleacher Report to debate the matchup between the two based on the newly released odds. Click here for the 3-minute video preview. The opening odds are the closest for a GSP matchup in a long time. So if you’re a fan of the champ, this presents good value. However, as we’ll discuss, Johny Hendricks is a more legitimate threat than...
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