Kountermove Fantasy MMA Preview for UFC 191
There’s a plenty of knockout potential on the UFC 191 card, and that means certain fighters will post big points. But which ones?
For starters, here’s a list of the fighters by Knockdown Rate. The card is stacked with heavy hitters, and that’s great for fantasy points.
In fantasy MMA there’s no more valuable a rule than “bang for your buck.” Fighters who manage to score lots of knockouts or submissions normally come at a premium, so the trick is to hunt for finishing potential in fighters that are reasonably priced. To rack up big points, you need winners and finishers.
The other helpful factor is the betting line, because heavy favorites do indeed tend to win quite often. But you can’t just load up your roster with favorites; you’ll need to make some value picks on underdogs or pick ‘ems to stay within the salary cap.
So in order to win your pool, you’ll need winners, finishers…plus maybe an upset. And if you can’t find an upset, at least take an underdog with the potential to put up some points and avoid getting finished. We first need to separate the favorites and underdogs by their value, so here are a few recommendations for this weekend’s big card.
Likely Winners and/or Finishers
Anthony Rumble Johnson is a sizable favorite over Jimi Manuwa, and that’s because Rumble is one of the hardest hitters in the game, and came quite close to knocking off current champ Daniel Cormier. Johnson’s submission defense has been his weakness, but as long as he’s standing, he’s been dominant. Manuwa is also a striker first, but his style of going toe-to-toe with opponents may not be wise here, as it could just facilitate the end of the fight. At $5,600 Johnson is pricey, but he offers big points if he comes through with the early KO.
Paul Felder is another big favorite, and also facing an opponent who not only likes to strike, but has absorbed a lot of damage over the years. Although they are virtually the same age, Felder has never been knocked down, while Pearson has been dropped five times. Pearson lives by the sword and dies by the sword, but he might be showing up with a sword to a gun fight. At $5,200, Felder is another favorite who is mostly likely to win by TKO, and some his “spinning stuff” should be expected as well.
Just Too Pricey
Demetrious Johnson is tied for the priciest fighter on at UFC 191 at $5,800, probably because he’s a heavy five-to-one favorite. Even when he doesn’t get a finish, he posts solid points over five rounds. Placing him on your squad means likely points, except for the scenario where Dodson lands a bomb and gets the KO, as he is capable of doing. Still $5,800 means you’re going to have to dig deep to fill out the roster. Meanwhile, Dodson at $4,800 would need to be even lower in order to justify the flier upset pick. That said, if he comes through, he’ll likely be the key to the winning teams.
Ditto for Paige Van Zant. She’s the biggest favorite on the card, and tied with Mighty Mouse at $5,800. Again, she’s likely to get you win points, but not a lock for a finish, and it uses up too much salary space. Everyone expects her to roll over Chambers here, hence PVZ is the card’s biggest favorite by far. And there’s certainly finishing potential, just not right out of the gates.
Bargain Favorites and Fliers
John Lineker is practically a pick em’ favorite over Francisco Rivera, but Lineker has the bigger power between the two, and the much more durable chin. This is another matchup that is likely to be a striking duel, and Lineker’s power combined with Rivera’s aging chin that has been hurt five times spells value for Lineker at just $4,800.
Frank Mir finishes fights, ann which way he wants. He’s world class on the ground, and he has the highest Knockdown Rate in the UFC. He’s a mild underdog against the resurgent Andrei Arlovski, but in essentially a pick em’ type scenario between Heavyweights, Mir could come through with big points at a basement price of just $4,600. He’s your lottery pick that enables you take draft several more expensive fighters.
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