5 Facts for UFC 190 from Captain Obvious

 

The UFC 190 card is so stacked they’re putting seven fights on the Pay-Per-View broadcast (thanks to TUF Brazil), including a bevy of Brazilians superstars anchored by both Nogueira brothers. But in a new twist to our stats segments, we’re offering you five facts you might have already known, but we’re backing them up with some hard numbers.

Now, with the help of the Captain Obvious meme, here are five things you need to know about UFC 190, and the stats that will make you the smartest guy at the table on fight night.

 

1. Ronda Rousey is Really Good at Submissions

CaptObvious-Rouseysubs

Ronda Rousey isn’t just good at winning fights by submission, she’s the best in UFC history by a long shot. She’s converted five of eight submission attempts into wins in very short order, with a success rate of 63% that is three times the UFC average. Her submission wins per minute metric of 0.220 is more than twice that of the nearest UFC peer, Paul Sass at 0.105. Rousey is clearly the biggest submission threat at UFC 190, and any other card.

 

2. Neil Magny Has Really Long Arms

Welterweight Reach

Neil Magny may be an underdog to the No. 6 ranked Welterweight Demian Maia, but on fight night he’s still going to have one big advantage thanks to his wingspan. Magny’s 81-inch reach is the longest in the division, and just a few inches behind superfreak Jon Jones. The honor of rangiest fighter on the card goes to 7-foot Heavyweight Stefan Struve, but Magny’s close, which is all the more impressive given that he fights at Welterweight. Magny shows up on one extreme end of the graph above, while Maia is below average for his division. The nine-inch differential in range could play an important role in a fight where Maia will likely want to get close and work grappling, while Magny tries to keep his distance and throw leather.

 

3. Struve vs Big Nog Probably Won’t Go the Distance

Uber Tape Struve-Nog

The advantages are back and forth on this Heavyweight clash, but despite the fact that this matchup is hard to predict in terms of a winner, it’s important to note how these two stack up separately on the statline. They are both dangerous fighters in multiple ways: they each have KO power standing, but are also high and dangerous with submission attempts. And furthermore, they’ve each been vulnerable in the past leading to chin ratings that are well below average (even for Heavyweights). Add up all that offensive firepower with the fact that they’ve each been through wars and can be stopped, and we’ve got a matchup that should not see the cards. Hunt-Bigfoot told us anything is possible in the Heavyweight division, but certainly the ingredients here are clearly leaning towards a finish.

 

4. Patrick Cummins is Going to Try to Wrestle Rafael Cavalcante…

Wrestlers UFC 190

Former NCAA D1 All-American wrestler Patrick Cummins has used his mat skills very effectively to date in MMA. When he doesn’t, things don’t always go well, as evidenced by his only two losses coming by way of first round KO. Cummins spends 51% of all his cage minute on the ground, and in control – more than any fighter on the UFC 190 card (even Rousey).

 

…And 5. Rafael Cavalcante Will Want to Keep it Standing at a Distance

Hardest Hitter

Cummins’s opponent Rafael Cavalcante, however, has only landed one takedown in his entire 10-fight Strikeforce/UFC career, and is the lowest scoring fighter on the card by that same ground control metric. But Cavalcante also has the highest Knockdown Rate of anyone on the card, and so he has a clear interest in keeping this standing. This is the most Uber Wrestler-Striker matchup since Chael Sonnen faced Anderson Silva. Ok, maybe not, but it’s pretty extreme.

 

For information MMA analysis and on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here.

 

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