Betting Analysis: Evan Dunham vs Rafael dos Anjos
Lightweight Fight: Evan Dunham vs. Rafael Dos Anjos UFC on FX 8: Rockhold vs Belfort, May 18, 2013 Big Picture: #10 ranked Rafael dos Anjos looks to leverage a home field advantage in Brazil and a three-fight win streak to cement his position in the UFC top 10. But UFC veteran Evan Dunham is 7-3 in the UFC, continuing his own slow rise to contention while amassing Fight of the Night bonuses. The current line gives the advantage to the Brazilian at -190, with Dunham as the underdog at +165. Given how close the matchup is, and how much quantified fight data exists on these two...
read moreThe Strikeforce Effect Part 2: Are Crossover Fighters Undervalued?
I previously introduced the idea that the betting public places high value on Octagon pedigree, and therefore, may be underestimating fighters crossing over from Strikeforce. If you haven’t read the full explanation of why this might be so, please do so here, and forgive the quick science lesson. The initial results supported the hypothesis that betting on Strikeforce fighters was presenting value. If anyone had simply bet equal amounts on every Strikeforce fighter making his UFC debut against an incumbent fighter since the December 2012 announcement of the end of Strikeforce, they would...
read moreHeavyweight Fight: Roy Nelson vs. Cheick Kongo Betting Analysis
UFC 159 Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey Saturday, April 27, 2013 Fight Breakdown: Pay per view cards are often good for guaranteeing some heavyweights will enter the Octagon. And UFC 159 is featuring to very big guys in a matchup that should end early. Here’s how they stack up, and what my betting play is. Nelson (18-7) is a winner of the Ultimate Fighter that we all seem to forget about. He was an IFL veteran before getting onto the heavyweight season of TUF, and then rattled off wins against a long list of UFC heavyweight stalwarts. His stifling grappling...
read moreLight Heavyweight Title Fight: Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen Betting Analysis
UFC 159, Saturday, April 27, 2013 Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey Fight Breakdown: Regardless of how excited (or not) Jon Jones may be about this, the UFC light heavyweight title is going on the line at UFC 159. Current champion Jon Jones will defend his title against former middleweight title contender Chael Sonnen after a refreshingly awesome 17th season of the Ultimate Fighter. Jones is currently a heavy -850 favorite (bet $850 to win $100) at 5Dimes Sportsbook, while Sonnen is a +550 underdog (bet $100 to win $550). Jones (17-1) is already 11-1* in the UFC, and is making...
read moreUFC on FOX 7: A Statistical Breakdown
Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics UFC on FOX 7: A Statistical Breakdown I’m a fan of the commitment to top notch matchups for the FOX cards. Every one of the main card fights is an interesting matchup, and it’s stack with talented and exciting fighters. There’s even a title at stake on network Primetime. So while I push forward with statistical research and writing “Fightnomics” the book, I occasionally like to see what matchups stats might tell me about picking winners against the betting lines. Keep in mind the overarching theme of the event: Strikeforce vs. UFC. The event is even...
read moreThe Strikeforce Effect: Are We Undervaluing Crossover Fighters?
Part 1. In January of 2013, Strikeforce hosted its final event before folding the promotion and sending select fighters into the UFC. Top fighters had already been cherry-picked from the Strikeforce roster, perceived by some as Zuffa pillaging the spoils of war for the UFC’s benefit before the 2011 buyout reached its inevitable conclusion. And why not? There were definitely some stars lurking on the other side of the wall. Another Beta Bites the Dust This list of early marquis imports included prior UFC veterans and Strikeforce title-holders like Nick Diaz and Dan Henderson....
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