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Betting Analysis: Evan Dunham vs Rafael dos Anjos
Lightweight Fight: Evan Dunham vs. Rafael Dos Anjos UFC on FX 8: Rockhold vs Belfort, May 18, 2013 Big Picture: #10 ranked Rafael dos Anjos looks to leverage a home field advantage in Brazil and a three-fight win streak to cement his position in the UFC top 10. But UFC veteran Evan Dunham is 7-3 in the UFC, continuing his own slow rise to contention while amassing Fight of the Night bonuses. The current line gives the advantage to the Brazilian at -190, with Dunham as the underdog at +165. Given how close the matchup is, and...
read moreThe Strikeforce Effect Part 2: Are Crossover Fighters Undervalued?
I previously introduced the idea that the betting public places high value on Octagon pedigree, and therefore, may be underestimating fighters crossing over from Strikeforce. If you haven’t read the full explanation of why this might be so, please do so here, and forgive the quick science lesson. The initial results supported the hypothesis that betting on Strikeforce fighters was presenting value. If anyone had simply bet equal amounts on every Strikeforce fighter making his UFC debut against an incumbent fighter since the December 2012...
read moreUFC 159: Jon Jones vs.Chael Sonnen, Statistical Matchup Analysis
Even a great season of the Ultimate Fighter isn’t really over until the coaches get locked in a cage together. And no matter what Jon Jones thinks of Chael Sonnen’s right to a title shot, Dana put it up for grabs anyway. So let’s look at the numbers and see how this fight could play out. Despite Jones’ impressive streak in the light heavyweight division, Sonnen’s been around a lot longer, including WEC and UFC appearance dating back almost a decade to 2004. All in all, we’ve got over 17,000 data points to sift through to see if...
read moreHeavyweight Fight: Roy Nelson vs. Cheick Kongo Betting Analysis
UFC 159 Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey Saturday, April 27, 2013 Fight Breakdown: Pay per view cards are often good for guaranteeing some heavyweights will enter the Octagon. And UFC 159 is featuring to very big guys in a matchup that should end early. Here’s how they stack up, and what my betting play is. Nelson (18-7) is a winner of the Ultimate Fighter that we all seem to forget about. He was an IFL veteran before getting onto the heavyweight season of TUF, and then rattled off wins against a long list of...
read moreLight Heavyweight Title Fight: Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen Betting Analysis
UFC 159, Saturday, April 27, 2013 Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey Fight Breakdown: Regardless of how excited (or not) Jon Jones may be about this, the UFC light heavyweight title is going on the line at UFC 159. Current champion Jon Jones will defend his title against former middleweight title contender Chael Sonnen after a refreshingly awesome 17th season of the Ultimate Fighter. Jones is currently a heavy -850 favorite (bet $850 to win $100) at 5Dimes Sportsbook, while Sonnen is a +550 underdog (bet $100 to win $550). Jones...
read moreUFC on FOX 7: A Statistical Breakdown
Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics UFC on FOX 7: A Statistical Breakdown I’m a fan of the commitment to top notch matchups for the FOX cards. Every one of the main card fights is an interesting matchup, and it’s stack with talented and exciting fighters. There’s even a title at stake on network Primetime. So while I push forward with statistical research and writing “Fightnomics” the book, I occasionally like to see what matchups stats might tell me about picking winners against the betting lines. Keep in mind the overarching theme of...
read moreThe Strikeforce Effect: Are We Undervaluing Crossover Fighters?
Part 1. In January of 2013, Strikeforce hosted its final event before folding the promotion and sending select fighters into the UFC. Top fighters had already been cherry-picked from the Strikeforce roster, perceived by some as Zuffa pillaging the spoils of war for the UFC’s benefit before the 2011 buyout reached its inevitable conclusion. And why not? There were definitely some stars lurking on the other side of the wall. Another Beta Bites the Dust This list of early marquis imports included prior UFC veterans and Strikeforce...
read moreStriking Assessment: UFC Heavyweight Division
We’ve saved the biggest fighters for last in the striking assessment series. Heavyweights end 57% of fights by (T)KO, far more than any other weight class. They also have the highest average power head striking accuracy, possibly because defense is harder when you’re that big. And on top of all that, heavyweights hit really hard . Collectively the group shown in the graph has scored 82 knockdowns in their Strikeforce and UFC fights through 2012. So let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and then look at the...
read moreAre Submissions Harder to Secure in Later Rounds?
On Twitter: @Fightnomics Two key concepts that I’ve analyzed in prior research are the ideas that UFC fighters have improved their pace of output continuously through the years, and that not all submissions are created equal. Now it’s time to combine these two concepts and test a key hypothesis that’s been floating around the Octagon for a long time. The question is: are submissions more difficult to secure later in fights, either due to sweat or fatigue, or both? Common sense says “yes.” But I’m...
read moreFirst Preview of GSP vs Hendricks with MMA Oddsbreaker
Though the matchup between champion Georges St-Pierre and challenger Johny Hendricks doesn’t have a date yet, the boys at MMA Oddsbreaker already have a bead on the betting line. I recently joined Jeremy Botter from the Bleacher Report to debate the matchup between the two based on the newly released odds. Click here for the 3-minute video preview. The opening odds are the closest for a GSP matchup in a long time. So if you’re a fan of the champ, this presents good value. However, as we’ll discuss, Johny...
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